In my previous article, I gave a clear insight into how Godhana will be unseated from his current position as governor. I analyzed all the political aspirants based on prior data publicly available on IEBC data. You can read the article here.

So far Hassan Morowa is the only candidate that has shown interest in unseating Godhana. Other candidates who are also trying their best are Nuh Nassir and Hussein Dado.


Before I start talking about Hassan Morowa, let's look at the following candidates;

1. Nuh Nassir

Nuh Nassir is Wardei favourite candidate. He is trying his best to be the next governor but he has no numbers. In 2017 all the Wardei voted as a block but only got 21,677 votes. Nuh Nassir would have been the governor this time around but he made the mistake of dropping a candidate from the Pokomo side and choosing an Ilwana deputy. This is a mistake that he will forever regret since the Ilwana have split their votes. They have Batuyu who is an aspirant, and they have loyalty to Godhana and also to the Pokomo candidates. The maximum votes Nuh will get from the Ilwana will never exceed 1,000 hence Nuh will not reach the 27k threshold to secure the gubernatorial seat.


2. Hussein Dado

Hussein Dado is always overconfident. He was tricked in 2017 to believe that he was going to win the seat only to be defeated as a surprise. He even went to court to protest his defeat but was once again not successful. So what will make Hussein Dado lose? Hussein Dado has no strategy. His strategy is to bring confusion to the Pokomo voters so that they can divide their votes. He did it in 2013 and succeed but failed in 2017. He is also going to fail in this election. The main reason is the Ali Wario factor. Ali Wario is a kingpin of the Orma in Tana North. He commands a huge voter block. The votes Hussein Dado used to enjoy in 2013 and 2017 are now under the command of Ali Wario. We might even be shocked to see Hussein Dado trailing in this year's election. Even though there is a possibility of him gaining votes from the Pokomos, he will suffer a major blow from Ali Wario who is also vigorously campaigning for the top seat. Both Hussein Dado and Ali Wario will not reach the minimum votes required to secure the top seat 


Now back to Hassan  Morowa, how will he be able to achieve what the rest seem to have already failed?

Hassan Morowa has been chosen by the Chanamaro to lead the Pokomo. Chanamaro was the umbrella that was used to spearhead the Pokomo back in 2017 and emerged victorious in almost all the elective seats. This time the same Chanamaro unity led by the Pokomo elders have endorsed Hassan Morowa to move across all the villages within the county. This has given him a clear advantage over the other Pokomo aspirants who tried to convince the elders to endorse them but failed.

Another thing is Hassan Morowa is backed by Think Tanks who were responsible for Godhana's victory back in 2017. They know all the strategies on how to convince the voters to their side. So far Hassan Morowa is the most talked about candidate from the Pokomo side. From the day he showed interest in vying for the top seat to now being endorsed by the gasa is a clear picture that his campaign team has the blueprints of winning this seat.

With gasa endorsement, Hassan Morowa is now accepted easily in all villages. He is backed by the masesa, mabiso, and matabula. All these traditional leadership are backing Hassan Morowa's leadership.

Also, Hassan Morowa has picked a Giriama candidate. This has never happened before in the history of Tana River politics. The backing of Hassan Morowa with a Giriama candidate pushes him further to secure the gubernatorial seat.

Hassan Morowa is also moving to all villages from Kipini to Mbalambala in search of votes. He is the only candidate from the Pokomo that is serious about winning this seat.

Knowing the fact that the Pokomo Nation has a total of 37,000 votes, Hassan Morowa will secure most of these votes very easily.

One may ask, "What about Godhana? Is he posing threat to Hassan Morowa?

The answer is simple 'NO'. Godhana is an outcast. As we speak he is still searching for an entry point for Pokomo voters. If he is unable to convince his home villagers to vote for him what makes you think he will get votes from other places. For perspective, check out this opinion poll from TIFA released on the 13th of July which puts Hassan Morowa on top of the charts.

Finally, one thing I have learned in politics is that you need to make your opponent feel strong so that they can lower their guard and beat them at their own game. It was used back in 2017 and it worked, so will this time around.