We are now counting very few days towards 9/8 general election. We have seen many gubernatorial candidates being confirmed to vie for the top seat at Tana River county by IEBC. Every candidate is busy moving around Tana River trying to woo voters to vote for them in this general election. The 1 million dollar question is, WHO WILL WIN THIS GUBERNATORIAL SEAT?

For you to win this 2022 election as governor, you would at least have to secure 27k votes. This will guarantee you a clean shot to victory. Having less than this number will likely put you among the rest of the other losers. So who is likely to get this 27k by 9/8?


For now, in this article, I am interested in the incumbent governor Dhadho Godhana. Will he retain his seat or is he heading back to the political abyss? Let's analyze the scientific data we have collected to date.


Godhana first won his first election back in 2007. He won with a very higher margin than his other competitors. These are the results of the 2017 Mp Galole constituency.

Khalif Bwanaidi Bahola                   1,219  
Dhadho Gaddae GODHANA        3,969  
Juma Wario Golich                           1,359  
Mohamed Farah Hargamso              1,533    
Tola Kofa Mugava                            1,677  
Aden Somon Sangwen                      1,666  

This put Godhana in the limelight and in 2013, he tried to vie for the gubernatorial seat but he was not cleared by IEBC so he went back to defend his seat by doing vigorous campaigns. Sadly he lost this seat to Dukicha Hassan. These are the results of the 2013 Mp Galole constituency.

Galgalo Abari                                    145
Dhadho Gaddae GODHANA        5,527
Dukicha Hassan                           6,030
Jillo Kasse                                     1,000
John Mwangi                                      76
Dhadho Omar Abdulla                   1,750
Omar Kofa Komora                          162
Hiribae Said Buya                          3,183

If you compare 2007 and 2013, you will notice that the number of contestants on the Pokomo side has almost doubled. From 3 contestants in 2007 to 5 contestants in 2017. This automatically made Pokomo lose the seat despite them being the majority of voters in Galole.

Moving to 2017, Godhana tried his luck once more and was able to be elected as a governor. The following are the results of the 2017 gubernatorial election in Tana River.

Nur Nassir                                    21,677
Jillo Algi                                        4,193
Hussein Dado                              24,446
Dhadho GODHANA                 25,958
Danson Mungatana                      11,339

In 2017, there were only 2 Pokomo aspirants contesting for gubernatorial seat, but today, the list of aspirants has tripled. More aspirants from the Pokomo sides are interested in this seat. These aspirants include;

Omar Kofa Komora
Hassan Morowa
Athman Ndoyoya 
Michael Justin
Adam Barissa

There is a pattern that you can easily notice here. Every time Godhana is elected for a seat, the following election more aspirants pop up and try to unseat Godhana. Is it because he becomes a role model or he is incompetent when it comes to leadership? I leave this for you to answer.


So will Godhana be Re-elected in 9/8? 


From these raw data above from IEBC, the chances of Godhana being re-elected have been watered down to less than 20%. One thing we have noticed from the data is that in 2013 when Godhana wanted to be re-elected as an MP, another strong contestant, Hiribae Said aka Posta got more than 50% of Godhana's votes. Even though Posta did not win in 2013, he was voted in as Galole MP in 2017 with a huge winning margin. In this year's elections, there is also a strong gubernatorial candidate, Hassan Morowa who will surely drain most of Godhana's votes as we are heading to 9/8 elections.

Here is another proof. In 2017, Godhana was the only candidate vying for the gubernatorial position in Galole area, so every Pokomo voter in Galole had no choice but to choose Godhana. This year, 2022 there is Omar Kofa, Ndoyoya, and others who are from Galole and they will surely take a chunk of votes from Godhana. If in 2013 Said Posta took 50% of Godhana's votes, it won't be a surprise if this happened today.

Also, in 2017. Godhana won the seat by just a 1,512 vote difference. This means this small margin if he loses any votes from his camp then he would not be able to retain his seat. We can see the same pattern which happened to Hussein Dado. He was very comfortable with his win with 23,739 votes back in 2013. He did nothing to improve his vote base which saw him lose his position in 2017 to Godhana Dhadho.

What's next?


From the above analysis, we have tried to look at different angles to see if Godhana might still be elected. Let's say since Mungatana is not vying for the gubernatorial seat, he has a voting block of 11,339 back in 2017. If we add these votes to Godhana then he will retain his seat early in the morning even before sunrise by a winning margin of 37,297. Well, that is also a possibility but sadly the numbers don't add up.

We still have Adam Barissa, Michael Justin, and possibly Hassan Morowa who are from the Delta region. Godhana can not just enter other people's bedrooms without knocking. What we currently know there is a feud between the Godhana team and Mungatana team so it's not that easy to get that voting block without fighting for it. Also, the fact that Godhana has not done any development in the Delta region is a clear indication that the Delta people won't be easily tricked to vote for him. That makes the 11,339 votes up for grab. Any interested candidate with a good manifesto can have a chunk of it, which includes also the Cushites candidates.

Speaking of the Cushites here, another reason why Godhana will likely not win this election is that many young voters in Galole are ready to vote for Nuh Nassir or Hussein Dado. This makes it even worse for Godhana re-election since we are all aware that Godhana and his team have been heckled in different parts of Galole areas.


So how many votes will Godhana get this election?


Let's give him a maximum of 7,000 votes. This is for the fact that in 2013 when he wanted to be re-elected, his strong voters who believed in him gave him 5,527 votes despite failing to deliver. Also, he can get the rest from his loyal voters who are scattered around Tana River. A 7k vote is more than enough.


So who will likely get more votes from the Pokomo voting block?


The answer is simple. Hassan Morowa will likely get more votes from Pokomo than any other candidate. Here is why. First, let's see the other potential candidates from the Pokomo side.

1. Omar Kofa Manyota. He is an organized individual who owns an online lucrative business. He vied for Galole MP and got 162 votes. Today he wants to vie for the gubernatorial seat but he only sells his UGM party. We have not seen his presence on the ground. He was only seen once when collecting his IEBC clearance certificate.

2. Michael Justin. He was the former speaker of Tana River. He was the only top candidate in 2017 who failed to secure his seat under the umbrella of Chana Maro. He was also impeached by the county assembly. We have not seen his presence on the field. There are only rumours that he might be on the ballot. Also, nobody wants to associate with him.

3. Adam Barissa. He got 8,352 votes in 2013 votes and made the Pokomo lose the seat to Hussein Dado. As a result, he was rewarded with a lucrative cabinet position at the county. Many people have confirmed that he has not helped his people after getting the job. He was also kicked out as ODM chair for being incompetent.

4. Athman Ndoyoya. He is the only candidate whose history is not known, only that he was a teacher. He has a handful of voters from Zubaki. He is a threat to Godhana since he comes from Galole. He was cleared to vie for the gubernatorial seat. He uses his close family and friends to move around Laza with probox and lorries to seek votes. He has not launched any manifesto. There are unconfirmed rumours he might be someone's project. There was a time one of his handlers posted on Facebook praising Hussein Dado but quickly deleted the post.

5. ...Others. These are the rest of the candidates that we are not sure about them whether they have been cleared by IEBC or not. They include Suleiman Buko, Major Swaleh, Karhayu Deye and others. They are not known by many.


So what makes Hassan Morowa different from the rest of these Pokomo aspirants?


To see their popularity, several political strategists have done multiple online surveys and every time Hassan Morowa had exceeded their expectations. Not only has Hassan Morowa emerged as the best among these aspirants, but he has also even beat Godhana and taken the top position. Check out the following polls done by different political strategists;


Poll done by Godhana team

Poll done by Hussein Dado team



This gives Hassan Morowa a higher chance of beating all the Pokomo aspirants when it comes to voting. The other aspirants are not that strong to beat Hassan Morowa since they are all rejects from their community.

Are these polls anything true? Should we believe these polls?


The answer is, that these polls never lie. In 2016-2017, we did several polls between Godhana and Mungatana when they were both vying for the top seat. In each and every one of these polls, Godhana always won by a huge margin. And on the election results day, we saw Godhana beating Mungatana by over 60% . Check this one of the online poll evidence that was done back in 2017;


Now we are in 2022. In every poll that has been done Hassan Morowa always win. Do you believe Hassan Morowa will be the next governor come 9/8? What are your thoughts?